Assessment of Spatiotemporal Varying Relationships Between Rainfall,Land Cover and Surface Water Area Using Geographically Weighted Regression

Traditional regression techniques such as ordinary least squares (OLS) are often unable to accurately model spatially varying data and may ignore or hide local variations in model coefficients. A relatively new technique, geographically weighted regression (GWR) has been shown to greatly improve model performance compared to OLS in terms of higher R ² and lower corrected Akaike information criterion (AIC_C). GWR models have the potential to improve reliabilities of the identified relationships by reducing spatial autocorrelations and by accounting for local variations and spatial non-stationarity between dependent and independent variables. In this study, GWR was used to examine the relationship between land cover, rainfall and surface water habitat in 149 sub-catchments in a predominately agricultural region covering 2.6 million ha in southeast Australia. The application of the GWR models revealed that the relationships between land cover, rainfall and surface water habitat display significant spatial non-stationarity. GWR showed improvements over analogous OLS models in terms of higher R ² and lower AIC_C. The increased explanatory power of GWR was confirmed by the results of an approximate likelihood ratio test, which showed statistically significant improvements over analogous OLS models. The models suggest that the amount of surface water area in the landscape is related to anthropogenic drainage practices enhancing runoff to facilitate intensive agriculture and increased plantation forestry. However, with some key variables not present in our analysis, the strength of this relationship could not be qualified. GWR techniques have the potential to serve as a useful tool for environmental research and management across a broad range of scales for the investigation of spatially varying relationships.     

Reforestation Strategies Amid Social Instability: Lessons from Afghanistan

Foreign and domestic government agencies and other international organizations pursue reforestation programs in rural upper watershed areas of Afghanistan over the past decade to alleviate poverty, combat the insurgency and rehabilitate a depleted forest resource base. Popular programs incorporate cash-for-work to conduct hillside terracing, check dam construction and tree-planting for nut production, fuel wood, timber, dune stabilization, and erosion abatement. Programmatic approaches have varied as a function of accessibility, security and local objectives. Uncertain land tenure and use rights, weak local environmental management capacity, and a focus on agricultural production to meet immediate needs limit interest, nationally and locally. Unreliable security, a lack of high quality tree planting stock, limited technical knowledge and coordination among government agencies, and poor security hamper program expansion. Reforestation success would be most likely where these issues are least acute. The Afghan government should focus on supporting community based natural resource management, developing and disseminating improved conservation tree nursery strategies, and promoting watershed management schemes that incorporate forestry, range management and agronomic production. Reforestation practitioners could benefit from the human and material resources now present as part of the international war effort. Successes and failures encountered in Afghanistan should be considered in order to address similar problems in insecure regions elsewhere when reforestation may help reverse environmental degradation and contribute to broader social stabilization efforts.     

Bioavailability of copper,cadmium, zinc,and lead in tropical savanna soils assessed by diffusive gradient in thin films (DGT) and ion exchange resin membranes

The technique of diffusion gradient in thin films (DGT) for assessing bioavailable metals has not been tested under field conditions. We assessed the relationships of DGT- and cation exchange resin-membrane-measured concentrations of Cd, Cu, Pb, and Zn with plant uptake of the metals under greenhouse and field conditions. In the greenhouse, the effective concentrations of Cu, Pb, and Zn by DGT correlated significantly with uptake by sorghum (Sorghum bicolor), but cation exchange resin-membrane-measured concentrations of Cd, Pb, and Zn did not correlate with sorghum uptake. In the field, the DGT-measured concentrations of Cd, Pb, and Zn were not linearly related to uptake Cd, Pb, and Zn by lettuce (Lactuca sativa) except for Cu uptake (r = 0.87, p < 0.05). Similarly, it was only the resin-membrane-extractable Pb that correlated with Pb uptake by lettuce (r = 0.77; p < 0.05). However, fitting non-linear regression models improved the plant metal uptake predictions by DGT-measured bioavailable Cd, Cu, Pb, and Zn under field conditions. In conclusion, the DGT technique was fairly predictive of bioavailability in the greenhouse, but not in the field.     

Farm Crops Depredation by European Bison (Bison bonasus) in the Vicinity of Forest Habitats in Northeastern Poland

European bison, the largest mammal in Europe, after being exterminated in the wild and then restored during the 20th century is still listed by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN Red List of Threatened Species) as a species vulnerable to extinction. However, the increasing number of European bison, through creation of new and expansion of existing populations strongly increases the risk of human-bison conflict in the near future. We analyzed the depredation of farm crops by bison and the factors influencing the level of damage in the vicinity of two forest areas inhabited by bison in northeastern Poland. Between 2000 and 2010, the total cost of compensation was 196,200. The level of damage and amount of compensation was increasing from year to year in both forests and correlated with the number of bison. The majority of damage (57?% of cases) was recorded in winter (December-March). Snow depth and temperature did not influence the frequency of damage. The incidences of damage increased with decreasing distance from the woodland patches, therefore, 69?% of cases in Bia?owie?a Forest, and 80?% in Knyszyn Forest were recorded closer than 0.5?km from nearest woodland patch. The majority of the crops damaged by bison were cereals (61?%) but also hay (20?%) and rape (13?%). When compared to the availability of crops, bison strongly selected rape and rye in both regions. This study is the first addressing the increasing problem of human-bison conflict in re-introduced populations and analyzing long-term data on crop depredation. Such situations probably occur in the majority of growing and expanding bison populations, however, it has not yet to be monitored and is rather neglected in post-Soviet countries.     

The Importance of Temporal and Spatial Vegetation Structure Information in Biotope Mapping Schemes: A Case Study in Helsingborg,Sweden

Temporal and spatial vegetation structure has impact on biodiversity qualities. Yet, current schemes of biotope mapping do only to a limited extend incorporate these factors in the mapping. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the application of a modified biotope mapping scheme that includes temporal and spatial vegetation structure. A refined scheme was developed based on a biotope classification, and applied to a green structure system in Helsingborg city in southern Sweden. It includes four parameters of vegetation structure: continuity of forest cover, age of dominant trees, horizontal structure, and vertical structure. The major green structure sites were determined by interpretation of panchromatic aerial photographs assisted with a field survey. A set of biotope maps was constructed on the basis of each level of modified classification. An evaluation of the scheme included two aspects in particular: comparison of species richness between long-continuity and short-continuity forests based on identification of woodland continuity using ancient woodland indicators (AWI) species and related historical documents, and spatial distribution of animals in the green space in relation to vegetation structure. The results indicate that (1) the relationship between forest continuity: according to verification of historical documents, the richness of AWI species was higher in long-continuity forests; Simpson’s diversity was significantly different between long- and short-continuity forests; the total species richness and Shannon’s diversity were much higher in long-continuity forests shown a very significant difference. (2) The spatial vegetation structure and age of stands influence the richness and abundance of the avian fauna and rabbits, and distance to the nearest tree and shrub was a strong determinant of presence for these animal groups. It is concluded that continuity of forest cover, age of dominant trees, horizontal and vertical structures of vegetation should now be included in urban biotope classifications.     

Simulation of dam/levee-break hydrodynamics with a three-dimensional implicit unstructured-mesh finite element model

Dam failures usually cause huge economic and life losses , especially in urban areas where there is a high concentration of inhabitants and economic actors. In order to understand the physical mechanisms of the formation and development of dam-break flooding, lots of efforts have been put into different types of modelling techniques. However, most of existing models are 1D (one-dimensional) or 2D models based on the shallow water equations. In this paper, we present a 3D numerical modelling investigation of dam-break flow hydrodynamics in an open L-shape channel. A newly developed 3D unstructured mesh finite element model is used here. An absorption-like term is introduced to the Navier–Stokes equations in order to control the conditioning of the matrix equation in the numerical solution process and thus improve the stability. A wetting and drying algorithm is used here to allow the free surface height to be treated with a high level of implicitness and stability. The 3D model has been validated by comparing the results with the published experimental data. Good agreement has been achieved at six selected locations. This study shows that the 3D unstructured mesh model is capable of capturing the 3D hydraulic aspects and complicated local flows around structures in simulation of dam-break flows.     

Economic potential for conversion to organic farming: a net present value analysis in the East Mau Catchment,Nakuru, Kenya

This paper discusses the economic potential in terms of income changes that may result from conversion to low-external-input agriculture (LEIA) organic farming in a Kenya’s catchment area. A spreadsheet model applying the gross margin and net present value analysis was developed to estimate economic returns to labour and land of alternative smallholder cropping systems in the East Mau Catchment. The income and costs over a 10-year horizon associated with current cropping practices of a typical farm household cultivating 1.12 hectares of maize–bean intercrop, Irish potato, carrots, tomatoes, cabbages and kales mix were characterized based on field work conducted in 2008–2010. An “average” smallholder LEIA organic farm was simulated based on the conventional one, and its income discounted. A comparison was then made of the two farm types. Results indicate annual net present value returns to cropped land average Ksh 21,878/ha ($ 267/ha) and Kshs 22,561/ha (€ 275/ha) in 2010 values for conventional and prototype LEIA organic farming systems, respectively. Net returns are particularly sensitive to crop yields and price and cost of fertilizers and seeds. Further efforts should be made to provide an economic analysis of other LEIA organic farming practices such as composting, double digging and agroforestry in terms of additional labour costs resultant. The model can be extended to build more scenarios on the role of price premiums. Additionally, further research should be done to exploit the socio-demographic factors affecting the adoption of low-external-input systems.     

Soil Properties Predict Plant Community Development of Mitigation Wetlands Created in the Virginia Piedmont,USA

The study investigated vegetative and soil properties in four created mitigation wetlands, ranging in age from three to ten years, all created in the Virginia Piedmont. Vegetation attributes included percent cover, richness (S), diversity (H′), floristic quality assessment index (FQAI), prevalence index (PI), and productivity [i.e., peak above-ground biomass (AGB) and below-ground biomass]. Soil attributes included soil organic matter (SOM), gravimetric soil moisture (GSM), pH, and bulk density (D_b) for the top 10 cm. Species dominance (e.g., Juncus effusus, Scirpus cyperinus, Arthraxon hispidus) led to a lack of differences in vegetative attributes between sites. However, site-based differences were found for GSM, pH, and SOM (P < 0.001). Soil attributes were analyzed using Euclidean cluster analysis, resulting in four soil condition (SC) categories where plots were grouped based on common attribute levels (i.e., SC1 > SC2 > SC3 > SC4, trended more to less developed). When vegetation attributes were compared between SC groups, greater SOM, lower D_b, more circumneutral pH, and higher GSM, all indicative of maturation, were associated with higher H′ (P < 0.05), FQAI (P < 0.05), and total and volunteer percent cover (P < 0.05), and lower AGB (P < 0.001), PI (P < 0.05), and seeded percent cover (P < 0.05). The outcome of the study shows that site age does not necessarily equate with site development with soil and vegetation developmental rates varying both within and among sites. The inclusion of soil attributes in post-construction monitoring should be required to enhance our understanding and prediction of developmental trajectory of created mitigation wetlands.